Data

Hidden First Rounds

One of the drawbacks of venture capital databases is that they are dynamic. Information trickles in, often with significant time lags. This is especially true at the earliest stages, where rounds are often unannounced and many startups are too small for anyone to notice. It’s a structural challenge that I’m not sure will ever be fully resolved.

The underreporting and time lags associated with very early deals has become further compounded in recent years. Many startups in Silicon Valley and other leading startup hubs have increasingly relied on unpriced rounds (SAFEs or convertible notes) for their first or even second rounds of financing. Because these rounds are unpriced, they don’t appear in a company’s cap table until after it has raised a priced round later (and further, announced the deal—see above).

Combined, there are structural and cyclical reasons that the underreporting of very early venture rounds is especially acute now and fraught with severe reporting delays. This matters because people want to understand the market trends in near real time.

Lagged Deals and the Dynamic Nature of Venture Capital Databases

Venture capital databases are not perfect. One of the key problems is their dynamic nature. New information is coming in all of the time. Early-stage activity in particular is systematically lagged until additional rounds are raised (either because the earlier rounds were unpriced or because they were unannounced). For this reason, I try not to report data too recently from when the deals are to have occurred.